中国与TPP国家关税减让的宏观经济效应：基于GTAP模型的分析

谢建国; 丁蕾

中国与TPP国家关税减让的宏观经济效应：基于GTAP模型的分析

引用本文：谢建国，丁蕾.中国与TPP国家关税减让的宏观经济效应：基于GTAP模型的分析[J].财经理论与实践,2017,(3):104-110

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作者	单位
谢建国，丁蕾	(南京大学国际经济贸易系，江苏南京210093)

中文摘要:采用GTAP模型，模拟分析中国与TPP国家关税减让合作的宏观经济效应。结果显示：中国与TPP国家双边关税减让会强化双边的贸易联系，其中，制造业双边关税壁垒的取消比农业双边关税壁垒取消对中国及TPP国家的对外贸易影响更大；双边关税减让将提升双边的福利水平，同时也会使中国与TPP国家的贸易不平衡进一步扩大。结果表明，考虑到单边关税减让将损害减让国福利水平，采用双边关税减让以平衡双方利益是一个可行的合作途径。

中文关键词:TPP GTAP模型关税减让

The Macroeconomic Effect of the Tariff Concession between China and TPP Countries: An Analysis Based on the GTAP Model

Abstract:This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effect of tariff concession cooperation among China and TPP countries based on the GTAP model. On the basis of simulation，it derives the following conclusions: Tariff concession between China and TPP countries will increase the welfare in agricultural products；industrial tariff cut will greatly damage the welfare of China，the United States and Japan while the other nine members’ TPP welfare will increase. Whats more，the low and medium technology and labor intensive manufacturing departments are affected heavily between the manufacturing industry of the three countries. Meantime the results show that there is an increase in trade flows for China，TPP countries and the rest of the world which improves the international trade. In conclusion，the results from the GTAP simulations show that the trade promotion effect of the tariff concession cooperation between China and TPP countries is greater than the trade diversion effect.

keywords:TPP GTAP model Tariff Concession

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