| 良性通货紧缩还是恶性通货紧缩 -基于2011年以来通货膨胀水平下行的原因分析 |
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| 引用本文：张启迪.良性通货紧缩还是恶性通货紧缩 -基于2011年以来通货膨胀水平下行的原因分析[J].财经理论与实践,2017,(3):2-9 |
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| 中文摘要:根据通货紧缩对经济的最终影响，可以分为良性通货紧缩和恶性通货紧缩。在新凯恩斯主义框架下，从理论角度证明了恶性通货紧缩对经济有害，而良性通货紧缩对经济有益。通过实证研究表明：在中长期内，决定中国通货膨胀水平的五个因素分别为产出缺口、全要素生产率、货币、贸易和国际大宗商品价格。而本轮通货膨胀水平下降的主要原因是国际大宗商品价格下降，其次才是经济下行因素，即本轮通货紧缩是以良性通货紧缩为主、恶性通货紧缩为辅的结构性通货紧缩。因此，对当前通货紧缩应采取适当容忍的态度，不应单纯针对价格水平进行大幅干预。 |
| 中文关键词:通货紧缩 产出缺口 全要素生产率 国际大宗商品价格 |
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| Benign Deflation or Malign Deflation: An Analysis of the Causes of Downward Inflation since 2011 |
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| Abstract:In this paper，deflation is divided into benign deflation and malign deflation according to the influence of deflation on economic growth and the impact mechanisms of the two deflations on the economy are studied under the framework of New Keynesianism.It proves that the government should actively intervene in malign deflation and should not interfere in benign deflation.This paper also examines the determinants of Chinas inflation and the reason of the downward of inflation in recent years. The results show that in the medium and long term，the five factors that determine the level of inflation in China are the output gap，total factor productivity，monetary factor，trade factor and international commodity prices.The decline of inflation in recent years is mainly due to international commodity prices，followed by economic downturn factors.It means that the current round of downward inflation is dominated by benign deflation and is supplemented by malign deflation.Therefore，the low inflation level should be moderately accepted and should not be significantly interfered just for the price level. |
| keywords:Deflation Output gap Total factor productivity International bulk commodity |
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