| 不确定性、产业空心化与经济波动 |
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| 引用本文：陈乐一，邓佳燕，杨云.不确定性、产业空心化与经济波动[J].财经理论与实践,2016,(1):110-117 |
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| 中文摘要:以Aghion等（2004）的模型为基础，将不确定性、产业空心化引入到宏观经济波动的模型中来，分析其对经济波动的影响，并运用全球106个国家1980~2013年之间的数据进行实证检验，结论表明：不确定性、产业空心化程度的变化会影响财富的变化，财富的变化会影响投资的变化，进而影响经济波动；不确定性程度每提高1个百分点，经济波动就会提高0.441个百分点，产业空心化程度每提高0.028个百分点，经济波动就会提高0.019个百分点。进一步来看，产业空心化程度的提高伴随不确定性程度的上升会显著地加剧一个国家的经济波动。低收入国家不确定性程度的增大对经济波动的加剧作用最大，高收入国家对经济波动的加剧作用最小。与中高收入国家相比，低收入国家产业空心化程度的提高会显著地加剧该国经济波动。 |
| 中文关键词:经济波动 不确定性 产业空心化 财富波动 不同收入水平 |
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| Uncertainty, Industrial Hollowing Out and Economic Fluctuation |
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| Abstract:On the basis of the model of Aghion et al.(2004), we introduce the uncertainty and the industrial hollowing out into a model of macroeconomic fluctuations, analyzes its influence on economic fluctuation. Using 106 countries data between 1980 and 2013 for a test, the paper concludes that the change in the degree of uncertainty and industrial hollowing out will have an effect on the change of wealth, and wealth changes will affect the change in investment, which, in turn, has an effect on economic fluctuation; the higher level the uncertainty and the industrial hollowing out, the severer the economic fluctuation; for each one percent increase in the uncertainty degree, the economic fluctuation will increase by 0.441%; when the degree of the industrial hollowing out increases one percent, the economic fluctuation will increase by 0.028%. Further, under the interaction of uncertainty and industrial hollowing out, the rising degree of the industrial hollowing out along with the increase in the degree of uncertainty can significantly aggravate a country's economic fluctuations. Increasing the degree of uncertainty have the biggest effect on economic fluctuations in low income countries; and increasing the degree of uncertainty have the smallest effect on economic fluctuations in high income countries. Compared with the middle income and high income countries, low income countries increase the degree of industrial hollowing out will significantly aggravate the country's economic fluctuations. |
| keywords:economic fluctuation uncertainty industrial hollowing out wealth fluctuation level of income |
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