基于时间序列模型的中国GDP增长预测分析
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引用本文:何新易.基于时间序列模型的中国GDP增长预测分析[J].财经理论与实践,2012,(4):96-99
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作者单位
何新易 (南通大学 商学院江苏 南通226019) 
中文摘要:作为度量一个国家或地区所有常住单位在一定时期之内所生产和所提供的最终产品或服务的重要总量指标,如果能够对GDP做出正确的预测,必然可以有效引导宏观经济健康发展,为高层管理部门提供决策依据。选用适合短期预测的ARIMA模型对中国1952~2010年的GDP进行计量建模分析,预测结果认为未来五年中国的经济增长仍将处于一个水平较高的上升通道。
中文关键词:时间序列模型  GDP  预测 
 
The China's GDP Growth Forecast based on Time Series Model
Abstract:GDP is the market value of all officially recognized final goods and services produced within a country in a given period. The accurate GDP growth forecast can give the correct guild to the macroeconomic development and can help the decision making of the arthourity. Using the data of GDP from 1952 to 2010, a ARIMA forecast model has been built. From this new model, it shows that the economic growth in the next five years in China will still keep increasing rapidly.
keywords:Time series model  GDP  Forecast
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