湖南经济周期阶段的分析与预测
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引用本文:李玉双,陈乐一.湖南经济周期阶段的分析与预测[J].财经理论与实践,2012,(3):121-124
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作者单位
李玉双,陈乐一 (湖南大学 经济与贸易学院, 湖南 长沙410079) 
中文摘要:根据湖南1978~2010年相关数据对湖南经济周期阶段进行分析,结果表明:1978~2010年湖南经济经历了5个繁荣时期,分别是1978~1979年、1984~1986年、1991~1993年、1995~1998年、2006~2010年,且繁荣阶段的持续性在不断增强;其余年份经济处于衰退阶段。另外,湖南经济周期阶段预测结果显示:2011~2012年经济依然处于繁荣阶段;2013~2015经济处于衰退阶段,虽然处于衰退阶段,但是其程度并不深,尤其是2015年。
中文关键词:湖南经济  潜在产出  经济周期阶段  预测
 
The Analysis and Forecast of Hunan Business Cycle Phases
Abstract:Hunan business cycle phases through 1978 to 2010 have been analyzed in the paper. The results show that Hunan economy has experienced 5 times of prosperity phase: 1978~1979, 1984~1986, 1991~1993, 1995~1998, 2006~2010, and the duration of prosperity phase is increasing. The years not mentioned above were in recession. In addition, the forecast of Hunan business cycle phases shows that Hunan economy is going to be in boom in 2011~2012, but in recession from 2013 to 2015. Although it will experience recession, it won't be severe, especially in 2015.
keywords:Hunan economy  Potential output  Phases of business cycle  Forecast
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