人民币均衡汇率估算:1997~2009年
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引用本文:李永宁,郭玉清,赵钧.人民币均衡汇率估算:1997~2009年[J].财经理论与实践,2011,(3):18-23
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作者单位
李永宁,郭玉清,赵钧 (1.中国人民银行 金融研究所北京1000322. 南开大学 经济学院 天津300071
3. 天津商业大学 马列学院
天津300134 
中文摘要:采用中国最重要的46个贸易伙伴计算人民币名义有效汇率和实际有效汇率,在此基础上估算1997年1季度~2009年4季度人民币均衡汇率水平和失衡程度。研究表明,2009年4季度人民币汇率失衡程度显著低于2005年汇改时期,因此,汇率改革应该坚持2005年确定的渐进方针。
中文关键词:均衡真实汇率  真实有效汇率  汇率失衡
 
The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates of RMB:1997~2009
Abstract:The most important 46 Chinese trade partners are chosen to calculate the RMB's the nominal effective exchange rate and real effective exchange rate, then RMB's equilibrium exchange rates level and the degree of the RMB's exchange rate imbalance from the first quarter in 1997 to the fourth quarter in 2009 are estimated. The disequilibrium of RMB's the exchange rate in 2009 year is notable below that of in 2005 year. So the exchange rate reform should persist in that strategy of "little by little" which was defined in 2005 year.
keywords:Equilibrium real exchange Rates  Real effective exchange rate  Exchange rate imbalance
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