中国基本养老保险制度财务平衡与可持续性研究——基于国发[2005]38号文件形成的城镇基本养老保险制度
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引用本文:刘昌平,殷宝明.中国基本养老保险制度财务平衡与可持续性研究——基于国发[2005]38号文件形成的城镇基本养老保险制度[J].财经理论与实践,2011,(1):19-24
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作者单位
刘昌平,殷宝明 (武汉大学 社会保障研究中心,湖北 武汉430072) 
中文摘要:采用“到期债务”定义,按照国发[2005]38号文件形成的制度模式,通过构造公式测算了基本养老保险制度的隐性债务、转制成本理论值以及基金缺口的期限结构。结论表明:做实个人账户真正实现了“统账结合、分账管理、实账运行”;社会统筹账户基金缺口规模被有效降低,偿债周期可以接受;社会统筹账户是一个精算盈余的制度安排,缴费率存在下降空间;参保率和缴费基数对基金缺口规模的影响很大,应进一步提高参保率和严格规范缴费基数。
中文关键词:基本养老保险  隐性债务  转制成本  基金缺口
 
Research on the Financial Balance and Sustainability of Pension System in China
Abstract:Applying the definition “debt maturity”, the theoretical value of the implicit pension debt, transition cost and the term structure of funding gap by modeling are calculated based on State Council Document [2005]38. The results indicate that the policy of fully funding individual accounts can separate individual accounts from public account effectively and go with solid accounts. The funding gap can be narrowed significantly and the liability term can be accepted; social welfare insurance account can achieve the actuarial surplus, and the payment rate may be decreased. The coverage and contribution base should be promoted because of their tremendous effect on the financial balance.
keywords:Pension System  Implicit Debt  Transition Cost  Funding Gap
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