经济发展中的宏观金融效率问题——基于1981~2009年季度数据的考察

吴湧超

经济发展中的宏观金融效率问题——基于1981~2009年季度数据的考察

引用本文：吴湧超.经济发展中的宏观金融效率问题——基于1981~2009年季度数据的考察[J].财经理论与实践,2010,(5):2-7

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作者	单位
吴湧超	（1.上海财经大学统计与管理学院，上海200433； 2.中国人民银行福州中心支行，福建福州350003）

中文摘要:金融与经济发展具有长期稳定关系，但不同金融发展指标有不同的表现形式。以广义货币供应量所体现的货币化指标对经济的影响较明显，以信贷所体现的金融发展指标虽短期内可以促进经济发展，但在长期内却不能起到显著作用，利率指标对经济增长的影响不明显。虽然金融发展对经济发展有一定的影响，但总体上对经济的贡献很有限，中国金融发展与经济发展的关系更符合需求伴随假说。

中文关键词:经济增长金融发展效率协整

The Efficiency of Macro financial of Our Economic Development: Based on Quarterly Data from 1981 to 2009

Abstract:There exists the long term and stable relationship between financial development and economic growth, but different indicator of financial development has different efficiency. The broad measure of money supply has obviously more influence on the economy. Although the loan can promote the economic growth in the short term, it has no positive effect in the long term. The interest rate has little influence on the economy growth. Although financial development has some effects on economy growth, on the whole its contribution is very limited. The relationship between financial development and economy growth in China is fit for the hypothesis of demand following.

keywords:Economic growth Financial development Efficiency Cointegration

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